Kelly Grains

Sorghum crop inspection with Dom. Feed for animals or wine for the Chinese? #5thgeneration #grains #darlingdowns #chookfeed #baijiu @ Norwin, Queensland, Australia

Overnight markets 3/1/18 Milling wheat: current crop and next year’s crop about UP $1-$2/mt Barley/Sorghum/Feed wheat: current and next year’s crop about UP $1-$2/mt Canola: current crop and next year’s crop about UP $1/mt
... Markets were stronger across the board overnight on US weather concerns and a weaker USD also enabled price support. CBOT wheat was up sharply on concerns over winterkill to parts of the US plains and Midwest crops following very cold weather. EU wheat bucked the trend to finish slightly lower as strength in the EUR/USD left export prospects weak. Corn was a follower of wheat as prices gained but not to the same extent as seen in the wheat exchanges. Oilseeds were also firmer overnight CBOT soybeans gaining on hot weather concerns in Argentina with the view it could limit crop production. ICE Canola and Matif rapeseed also finished higher. The AUD is trading at 0.7830, down 10 points from last night but still up solidly since this time yesterday. We expect markets to gain today with wheat basis likely to soften a few cents.
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Overnight Markets 2/2/18 HAPPY NEW YEAR! Milling wheat: current crop and next year’s crop about UNCHANGED Barley/Sorghum/Feed wheat: current and next year’s crop about UNCHANGED Canola: current crop and next year’s crop about UNCHANGED to $1/mt
... Friday’s markets were mixed to end the year on light volume. CME wheat closed marginally lower on thin technical selling as KBOT up slightly with MGEX down for the session. All three wheat bourses end the 2017 year up from 2016. EU wheat markets finished the year with a 5th straight annual decline as futures were weaker in the last trading session on thin volume. CME corn futures ended modestly lower on technical selling however losses were limited due to supportive USDA weekly export sales data. CME soybeans closed higher finding support from lower than expected January deliveries and technical buying. ICE Canola futures end narrowly higher for Mar’18 contract on a rebound from the recent six month low on end of year position squaring as Matif rapeseed also posted small gains. The AUD is currently trading at 0.7806, unchanged from Friday afternoon. We will likely start today unchanged in the grain markets and unchanged to up $1/mt in oilseed markets. Wheat basis will be mostly unchanged.
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20/12/17 Domestic markets were broadly weaker for the week. Grower selling picked up over the past week on winter crop grains and with few domestic homes and limited export demand there is no real desire for the trade to be long or get any longer, thus values headed lower. In saying that, it does feel as though this softer phase has a limited life span, with the remnants of southern harvest pressure to weigh on markets in the near term. As such, there isn't any real enthusias...m to the softer markets, just more so that the trade wants to own it at lower levels before the grower selling eases. Mid to longer term there is a belief that grower selling will tighten up and grain will become hard to buy again. So this pressure may well be short term only. Sorghum remains somewhat out of step, finding relative support on the lingering uncertainty of production with crops requiring additional rainfall to secure crop prospects. That in itself should be supportive to wheat and barley, in the north at least. Offshore grain markets were broadly stronger as wheat and corn futures rebounded off recent contract lows while oilseeds continue to come under pressure from improving South American weather forecasts. US wheat futures garnered strength from two fronts; dry conditions across the US central plains with amplified concerns over impending freezing conditions and the record short position that speculative funds have built across CBOT and KCBT wheat exchanges. Furthermore, the recent weakness in US wheat has seen a marked improvement in US export competitiveness leading to a pick-up in export demand. The Jan’18 ASX East Coat wheat contract started the week at around A$258/mt slipping around $2/mt to finish the week. In contrast, ASX barley finished the week down $9/mt, with the barley market lagging the previous weeks weakness in wheat. This week again saw limited rainfall across the east-coast with the exception of North-East NSW, which saw localised areas receive between 10-25mm, with the remainder of the east coast was mostly dry. The week ahead should see another largely dry period for Victoria and Southern NSW while eastern regions of central and northern NSW have the potential to see significant rainfall of between 10-50mm with NE-NSW to see the heaviest of falls. With the Australian harvest now over 90% complete the final stretches should proceed un-hindered.
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13/12/17 Domestic cash markets were mixed for the week with wheat values coming under pressure as markets deciphered the impact of the rain on quality and came to the conclusion that the damage was not as widespread or price significant as first thought. There will be plenty of feed grain produced in the south east now and markets are trying to work out the likely nutritional value and grade spreads. The likely outcome is a range of downgraded quality which will make pricing... more challenging and will continue to see volatility in grade spreads. Furthermore, the trade is trying to get ahead of imminent off grade grain selling by growers, further adding pressure to prices this past week. The other challenge facing wheat markets over the past week is that most players, with the exception of consumers, are square to long. With consumers adequately covered in the near term and with recent grower selling, the trade just doesn't want to go too much longer. So it's being tipped out through the trade and ASX. Not in significant volumes, but enough to help the slide in values over the last week. Offshore markets were broadly lower with Chicago wheat and corn touching fresh contract lows in the December contract through the week, the weakness comes amid a market sentiment that the least path of resistance is lower, with poor US exports and abundant global supplies and the USDA’s revision higher of global wheat production stocks. US futures and cash values have now fallen to levels that see US SRW wheat competitive with Russian Black Sea wheat, thus limiting the need for further US weakness. The Jan’18 ASX East Coast wheat contract started the week at a mid-point of around A$272/mt before slipping over $14/mt on the above mentioned concerns to finish the week quoted around a A$258/mt. In contrast, ASX barley finished the week up $12/mt, this comes on strong export demand with reports of significant barley sales to China in recent weeks as well as concerns for quality barley following this month’s rainfall event. This week saw limited rainfall across the east coast with most of central and northern NSW experiencing a dry/warm week. Parts of SNSW and Victoria saw scattered showers of no more than 10mm. South-East QLD saw the best falls but they were constrained to the inner downs. The week ahead should see another largely dry/warm period with rainfall totals limited to 5-10mm across much of the East Coast. With the Australian harvest over 75% complete the final stretches should proceed un-hindered.
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30/11/17 Domestic cash markets have finished the week mixed with milling grade wheat finding strong support while feed grains continue to come under pressure amid expectations of quality downgrades with forecasts for heavy and potentially flooding rain through parts of Southern NSW and Victoria over the coming weekend. With the expectation of an increased availability of feed grain wheat, the north/south spread has narrowed throughout the week. The firmness comes despite exte...
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26/11/17 - Harvest update Tocumwal closed for F1 Barley & GM canola due to impending weather. Still OPEN for WHEAT, Latrobe Malt & Canola. Finley OPEN for Wheat H14, H1, H2, AUH2, APW1 & ASW1.

22/11/17 Domestic cash markets traded sideways and in narrow band for much of the week but managed to edge mostly higher to finish the week. The general theme for the week was uncertainty with trades exhibiting an erratic nature and this flowed through to the bid/offer spread, as such it has been difficult to determine market direction. Wheat appears to be shuddering higher but coarse grains remain flat to a touch firmer. This mentality highlights the uncertainty that persist...
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15/11/17 Domestic cash markets were mixed for the week with wheat markets coming under pressure early on before tracking largely sideways for the remainder of the week while barley markets found modest support through the week. The early weakness in wheat markets was triggered by a heavy sell-off in ASX wheat which fell around $7.50/mt in a single session. That weakness put pressure on southern cash markets which were aggressively offered lower into the weekend. For the remai...
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08/11/17 Domestic cash markets have tracked largely sideways over the past week with most of the volatility still being felt in the north as participants try to gauge the profile of the on-going harvest. In contrast though, southern markets have been relatively steady by comparison. Less engagement on both sides of the market has made for narrow ranges and little movement in values in the south of late. Lack of grower activity is also stifling price movement in the south, b...
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01/11/17 Cash markets continue to exhibit a fair degree of uncertainty at present. Markets continue to be buffeted by inter-commodity and inter-zone spreading as well as the varying interpretations of the impact of recent rain and the forecast of further rainfall for the winter crop and impending harvest. Pre-emptive selling last week on the notion that that recent rainfall would create quality seems to be dispelled. Indeed, early harvest reports along the QLD/NSW border sugg...
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25/10/17 Cash markets remained under pressure this past week with weakness again driven by an improved outlook for summer crops following recent welcome rainfall as well as relief for parched winter crops while the start of harvest in Southern Queensland also added its weight. An emerging concern and one that could add further price pressure is the impact of recent rain on wheat quality, any downgrades could see the additional feed wheat weigh on values and conversely support...
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11/10/17 Cash markets again came under pressure this past week with the weakness again driven by the improved domestic outlook for summer crops with rain into QLD and NSW providing relief for later planted winter crops and improving the outlook for a timely plant to summer crops. The swing to downside was initially resisted by southern markets, with Victoria and SNSW remaining largely dry, but ultimately succumbed to the northern weakness as the market unwound North/South spr...
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05/10/17 Cash market values came under pressure during the week, largely driven by improvement in the domestic scenario with rain into QLD and NNSW providing what should have been some much needed relief for parched crops as well as an improved outlook for the summer crop and played into the hands of market bears. The domestic weather market saw downside compounded by weakness in the US complex as winter and spring wheat futures came under pressure from an above-expectation U...
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27/09/17 Values continued to firm generally in cash markets this week as participants met with resilient bullishness on the back of sustained drought conditions across much of the east coast, and with concerns rising over the SNSW crop following the weekend’s heat event as well as the better looking VIC and SA crops. Strength in the domestic market was compounded by steady gains in offshore futures led by generalised short covering and technical buying. Demand seemed to ease ...
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